Definite Uncertainty

We had a few hurdles to get our daughter back from the UK to Singapore for Christmas. Despite wonderful help (from many), there were problems with entry-permits, flights, covid-tests, quarantine and some stressful incidents - including being turned away at the airport for having the ‘wrong’ COVID test. It all worked out in the end, though it took a lot longer and cost a lot more than it might have done. One of the many things we learnt was that sometimes, even when an outcome is good, uncertainty and apparent randomness in a process can be very stressful. That’s consistent with some fascinating lab experiments from way before covid; in one such experiment participants were divided up into two groups; one was told they would definitely be given a painful electric shock, the other told they had a 50% chance of being given an electric shock. Amazingly, those with the 50% chance of being shocked were more stressed than those with the certain shock, suggesting that unpredictability and uncontrollability are central features of stressful experiences.

I have that in mind as I think about possible New Year’s Resolutions. I have always been a bit ambivalent about them (here are some thoughts from the previous five years) and this year it seems a lot less than usual has been written about them.   Perhaps that’s because with many things out of our control, we’ve finally moved away from trying to be in charge. That’s not a very comfortable sensation (for me anyway) - either personally or professionally, where today’s zeitgeist of constantly striving to be better is so well entrenched that it’s more a background social expectation than a choice.

This striving is not new, but it’s intensity is a recent thing, I think. Our reliance on technology exacerbates any natural fear of uncertainty - not only can we look up almost any known fact in seconds, we can find other people’s opinions, reviews, and ratings, and so rarely find ourselves without a source on which to lean.  As many have noted, social media also invites comparison with others.  More significantly, whenever anything goes wrong with our phone, car or other tech item, we can usually fix it, upgrade it or replace it easily enough; every problem has a solution and so as tech becomes more pervasive, we find ourselves approaching life that way - as a mechanism to be optimised (there are so many apps, for example, that seem to offer exactly this). But when this idea is shown to be illusory (thank you, 2020) the uncertainty is even more stressful than it might have been a few decades ago, before tech mediated our thinking so much. Evidence for this comes from studies such as those by psychologists Rozgonjuk et al who showed that in a group of 260 College students, increased levels of smartphone use (for non-social things) was associated with higher intolerance of uncertainty. I am reminded of the famous statement attributed to Marshall McLuhan: We shape our tools and thereafter our tools shape us

So given all that, what does this level of ongoing uncertainty mean for looking forward to 2021, for ourselves, for our children, for the College? 

As teachers and parents we have an opportunity to challenge the notion that life is totally linear and predictable. It may be uncomfortable for us, but it’s the right message to send our children. Tolerance of uncertainty can be taught, I think; and this interesting graphic shows an approach. Highlighting issues of compassion and relationships which should never be far below the surface of any school (or organisation generally), it’s a good prompt for us. Aligning values and habits is a central part of any decent education, so we’ll certainly be continuing to consciously stress these elements with students, families and colleagues.

The uppermost element in the graphic - which states that life’s beauty is inseparable from it’s fragility - struck me as a beautiful and profound statement that allows us to look back at 2020, and forward to 2021 with acceptance of what is, what has been, and with hope for the New Year. It may be precisely the uncomfortable uncertainties and fragility of who and what we love that allow us to see and appreciate them for what they are.


Reference

• de Berker, A., Rutledge, R., Mathys, C. et al. (2016) Computations of uncertainty mediate acute stress responses in humans. Nat Commun 7, 10996
• Rozgonjuk D. et al (2019) Non-social smartphone use mediates the relationship between intolerance of uncertainty and problematic smartphone use: Evidence from a repeated-measures study, Computers in Human Behavior, Volume 96, pp 56-62,
• Schonbrun Y. and Schwartz, B (2020) How Practical Wisdom Helps Us Cope with Radical Uncertainty. Behavioural Scientist